It has been a predictably pedestrian JP Morgan Healthcare Conference for the genomics market. Illumina, PacBio, and Ultima Genomics all made big announcements earlier this year. As such, JPM is more of a “status update” for them. The two non-stealth candidates for juicy updates are Singular Genomics and Element Biosciences. On Monday Singular came out with a very modest announcement - they shipped five instruments and recognized a little bit of revenue. Element, on the other hand, has attempted to steal the show by announcing the availability of the $200 genome on their AVITI benchtop sequencer. This beats Illumina to the punch by at least six months.
At first I was quite intrigued as it had appeared that Element had broken the universal rule of sequencing: you can have an inexpensive sequencer or an inexpensive genome, but not both. But as I re-read their press release I started having doubts which turned out to be well founded. To get the $200 genome you have to buy THREE Aviti sequencers. You get a discount when you buy three, but it still costs you $750k. You also have to commit to run all three at max capacity of 1000 genomes per year each, for a total of 3000 genomes. So they haven’t quite uncoupled inexpensive genomes from expensive instruments.
But this is still good news, right? Having another option for the $200 genome is a good thing. But I’m not completely sure how much of the market this is a good fit for. The $750k equipment purchase is cheaper than then $1.25M NovaSeq X Plus, but combined they only have 1/7th the 20k yearly throughput of the NovaSeq. So, if you need around 3k genomes per year, it’s a good fit. If you have exactly 3000 samples, it’s ~$56 cheaper ($283 vs $389; assumes 3 year instrument amortization). Any deviation from 3k and the delta becomes smaller. Between 4k-5k (which would require five AVITIs) the prices are identical. Above 5k and the NovaSeq is always cheaper. (Going below 3k is a little complicated. The NovaSeq is cheaper once you get down to 2.1k samples, but the Aviti takes over again at around 800 samples. But at this point it almost certainly would be cheaper to outsource to someone with a NovaSeq.)
So Element certainly wins points for beating Illumina to the $200 genome, but once the 25B flow cell becomes available, it only really makes sense for researchers with 2000-4000 samples per year. So, it’s a very nice addition to the competitive marketspace, but maybe not quite the “Illumina killer” it appears to be.
Shawn, one key consideration is batch size and the ability to scale to the right output. You can buy a single AVITI and know that you can scale your output and reduce your costs incrementally. You don’t have to make the massive CapEx commitment for a NovaSeqX and you don’t have to batch so many samples into a very expensive run.
Of course, the NovaSeq X still makes sense if you’re sequencing at a population scale and if data quality isn’t as important.
Hey, Cisco! What you’re saying is absolutely true… except for the $200 genome. According to the press release and feedback I got, the $200 genome from AVITI requires two things. First, you have to buy at least three instruments for a total of $750k. Cheaper than the NovaSeq X ($1M or $1.25M, depending on your flavor), but still a pretty big “CapEx commitment”. Second, you have to commit to buying enough reagents to generate 3000 genomes on those three instruments. So that negates the flexibility of batch size – each instrument can produce 1k genomes per year, so this is a commitment to run these three instruments at max capacity. If I have either of those things wrong, please let me know and I’ll update the post accordingly.
But does this mean that users can buy 3000 genomes worth of reagent and get much cheaper pricing for other applications as well or is it locked to genome outputs.
My guess is it’s just based on pure reagent purchase commitments and NOT tied to a specific assay (like Illumina’s HiSeq X Ten was at first). The thing to remember, however, is that “3000 genomes worth of reagents” is the maxed out capacity for those three machines. You could run other assays, but it would need to be full flow cells, two flow cells each run, and a full 2×150 run each time. So, there is -some- flexibility there, but not too much. You can’t wait around to batch multiple samples together or decide that you only have enough samples to run one of the three machines this week. It’s all three machines running full out to get this pricing.
[…] pretty clear that MGI has set the bar for low cost, ultra high throughput genomes. As I outlined previously, Element seems to have the lowest price when sequencing ~3k genomes per year, while Illumina has […]